Depending on how you look at betting lines, people either have a sober grasp of reality or are set up for a spectacular fall when it comes to Ronda Rousey (5-0 MMA, 3-0 SF) vs. Sarah Kaufman (15-1 MMA, 6-1 SF).
The sportsbooks that do carry the women’s bantamweight title fight give the champ Rousey about an 85 percent chance of winning against Kaufman.
It’s doubtful these odds would be so stark without some convenient MMA math and a little promotional muscle.
“Strikeforce: Rousey vs. Kaufman” takes place Saturday at Valley View Casino Center in San Diego. The event’s main card airs on Showtime (10 p.m. ET/PT) while preliminary-card fights air on Showtime Extreme (8 p.m. ET/PT).
There has been a comparison made in the buildup to Rousey vs. Miesha Tate to that of Gina Carano vs. Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos. Prior to that 2009 fight, Carano received the bulk of the marketing resources because of that infinitely promotable combination of good looks and aggressive fighting style.
Now, it’s Rousey, who’s widely been credited as the new “face” of women’s MMA because of those things, a run of five first-round submission wins, as well as a razor-sharp tongue that never fails to draw headlines.
The difference between the two situations, however, is that bettors didn’t overwhelmingly vote for Carano. Santos remained a modest favorite in the buildup to their fight. Bettors felt that her vicious style would likely leave Carano in a heap, which is were she eventually wound up at the end of the first round when they finally got in the cage. They were right.
The way they see it this time, there’s hardly a shred of a chance that Rousey will be unseated by Kaufman, who has more than twice the fights, once held the belt, and does some training with one of the most talent-rich MMA teams in the sport in Jackson-Winkeljohn MMA.
Perhaps the best argument for Rousey’s heavily favored status is her Olympic pedigree. One reason she’s so dominant is that as a bronze medalist in judo, her mastery of a basic submission such as the armbar has allowed her to submit all eight pro and amateur opponents with it. It’s the same type of mastery that’s allowed ADCC champ Roger Gracie to best opponents who are far more experienced and well-rounded than he. In the heat of the fight, he’s forced opponents into his realm, and from there, his advanced basics are all he’s needed to win.
But that doesn’t feel like the statement that’s being made with these odds. If Rousey weren’t such a popular and dominating presence in the media, the fact that Kaufman has KO-slammed her way out of submission danger before might hold more weight.
Instead, it’s being treated like it doesn’t exist.
And there’s some MMA math that aids Rousey. Kaufman’s sole loss was in a high-profile title defense against Marloes Coenen almost two years ago. That loss was by armbar. Then there’s Tate. Kaufman utterly dominated her en route to a unanimous-decision win whereas Rousey broke her arm in the first round.
But MMA math might also come in handy for Kaufman if fans looked up her specialty, resume-wise: striking stoppages.
Add to that a cliche that holds true for anyone experienced in the cage: Fighters in trouble fall back to what they know best. If Rousey isn’t able to submit Kaufman early, it could be a harbinger of an upset.
And consider that if Kaufman had taken on Rousey at the same time Santos did Carano, she would have been 8-0 with all eight wins coming by TKO or KO.
Think the odds would have been so lopsided then?
Rousey’s armbar might be unstoppable, of course. But given how prominent it is in her game, it won’t be forever, whether it’s Kaufman or someone else who exposes that truth. After all, Gracie eventually ran into Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal, who starched him with punches at a distance.
Saturday is about whether Rousey is able to impose her will on the most experienced fighter she’s yet faced. For Kaufman, it’s about leveraging that experience over pure technique.
Other main-card bouts
Ronaldo Souza (15-3 MMA, 5-1 SF) vs. Derek Brunson (9-1 MMA, 3-0 SF): Ex-middleweight champ Souza hopes to make it two in a row after submitting Bristol Marunde in his most recent appearance. Brunson, meanwhile, hopes to get back on the winning track after suffering the first setback of his career with a controversial split-decision loss to UFC vet Kendall Grove in regional competition. Souza can’t be far off from a rematch with the man who took his belt, Luke Rockhold, if he’s victorious in this bout. For Brunson, it’s a big chance to cut in line.
Tarec Saffiedine (12-3 MMA, 2-1 SF) vs. Roger Bowling (12-2 MMA, 4-2 SF): This welterweight bout places the winner high within the still-anemic Strikeforce 170-pound class. Saffiedine has won two straight since Tyrone Woodley outpointed him in their bout of future contenders, and Bowling, who’s beaten such UFC vets as Seth Baczynski and Shamar Bailey, could improve his stock by putting another notable notch on his belt after two recent wins over unheralded opponents.
Lumumba Sayers (6-2 MMA, 2-1 SF) vs. Anthony Smith (16-8 MMA, 1-1 SF): Middleweight Sayers recently bested notable veterans Antwain Britt and Scott Smith, so a win over the little-known Anthony Smith does little for his resume other than further build him as a prospect in the division. For Smith, it’s a chance to put his name on the map.
Ovince St. Preux (11-5 MMA, 4-1 SF) vs. T.J. Cook (12-4 MMA, 1-1 SF): Light heavyweight St. Preux is looking to bounce back after a decision loss to ex-champ Gegard Mousasi, which was his first defeat under the Strikeforce banner. The little-known Cook hopes to get back on the winning track, as well, after a submission loss to Trevor Smith.
The full “Strikeforce: Rousey vs. Kaufman” card includes:
MAIN CARD (Showtime)
Champ Ronda Rousey vs. Sarah Kaufman (for women’s bantamweight title)
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza vs. Derek Brunson
Roger Bowling vs. Tarec Saffiedine
Lumumba Sayers vs. Anthony Smith
T.J. Cook vs. Ovince St. Preux
PRELIMINARY CARD (Showtime Extreme)
Julie Kedzie vs. Miesha Tate
Bobby Green vs. Matt Ricehouse
Adlan Amagov vs. Keith Berry
Germaine de Randamie vs. Hiroko Yamanaka
For more on “Strikeforce: Rousey vs. Kaufman,” stay tuned to the MMA Rumors section of the site.
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